The trough fallacy
January 11, 2013 § 91 Comments
So now we’ve noted that data preselection matters.
We’ve also noted that even Game’s strongest proponents consider it approximately as effective as placebo: a practitioner of Game is taught to “next” a woman as soon as he runs into trouble, because there are more fish in the sea. Here I will note that this is also a preselection filter: if a man looking for a date has to “Game” twenty women to get that date, what we have demonstrated is that his techniques worked on one woman out of twenty. No doubt other preselection filters apply to the twenty: he met them all at school or what have you. This further limits our ability to generalize from the results.
This brings us to the sweeping conclusions that some manosphere commenters (NAMCALT!) reach about women in general.
One of the big manosphere gripes is that women engage in what is known as the apex fallacy. The apex fallacy involves women (and feminist men) forming a stereotype of men in general based on the small percentage of men who are Alpha males, because those are the men who are most visible to women. The great majority of men are in a very real sense invisible to women. When women think about men they think about a stereotype, and that stereotype is skewed toward the Alpha males and away from the average man. This results in women (and feminist men) completely misunderstanding the average man.
What I am suggesting here is that some manosphere commenters may be committing a similar fallacy: we might call it the trough fallacy. Because of their own preselection filters these commenters view women in general through a stereotype that applies to the preselected population of women that they actually “see”.